For decades, the great cities of the Gulf, Dubai, Doha, Riyadh, Kuwait City, Manama, and Muscat, have been viewed by millions of migrant workers as islands of stability in the Middle East. In these cities, Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) built lives, sent children to school back home, and sustained the Philippine economy through remittances.

Yet the widening conflict involving Iran is exposing a difficult truth: the Gulf’s aura of safety may not be as permanent as many once believed.

The current war is not simply a localized confrontation. It has evolved into a direct military conflict between Iran on one side and a coalition of Israel and the United States on the other. The war began when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian military and government targets across multiple cities, resulting in the decimation of the Iranian leadership, including the death of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran responded with missile and drone attacks not only against Israel but also against U.S. military bases across the Gulf region, including facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

This dynamic is precisely what makes the situation especially dangerous for expatriate communities.

Why the GCC Is No Longer Completely Shielded

Over several decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies maintained a delicate balance: they were close security partners of the United States while avoiding becoming direct battlegrounds in regional conflicts. Their wealth, stability, and strong internal security allowed cities like Dubai and Doha to project an image of neutrality and safety.

But a war that directly involves Iran, Israel, and the United States changes that equation.

As Iran retaliates against American forces, the strikes often occur within or near the same metropolitan areas where millions of foreign workers reside. U.S. bases, energy facilities, and shipping lanes are embedded within the same region where millions of migrant workers, including large Filipino communities, live and work.

In other words, the Gulf cities that have long functioned as economic safe havens for migrant workers are now positioned along the front lines of a widening geopolitical confrontation. Thus, even if migrant workers are not targets, they inevitably live within the radius of a much larger conflict.

More than 1.1 million land-based Filipino workers currently live in the Middle East, according to Philippine government estimates. Many of them are concentrated in GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, states whose cities have traditionally marketed themselves as secure global hubs insulated from the region’s conflicts.

Modern Warfare Does Not Always Respect Borders

Iranian missile and drone attacks continue to reach the Gulf cities. Explosions and debris from intercepted missiles have been reported in major cities like Dubai, disrupting daily life and shaking the long-standing perception that the Gulf’s cosmopolitan centers are immune from regional war.

For expatriates, including large Filipino communities, these incidents are more than geopolitical news. They are reminders that even highly developed cities can become vulnerable when regional rivalries escalate.

In modern missile warfare, infrastructure, airports, ports, and energy facilities become strategic targets. Gulf cities host many of these assets, including U.S. military bases, oil terminals, and global aviation hubs.

Even if combatants claim to target military facilities, missile interceptions, falling debris, or misfires can still threaten civilian neighborhoods, as seen in recent incidents across the Gulf.

For OFWs living in densely populated expatriate districts, the risks are real even if they are not the intended targets.

Migrant Workers Often Have Limited Protection

Another vulnerability lies in the structure of migrant labor itself. Migrant workers account for a massive share of the Gulf labor force, over 40% of workers in the region.

In times of crisis, some employers may abandon workers, salaries may stop, and passports or travel documents may be withheld. Workers may struggle to evacuate quickly.

Past conflicts in the Middle East have shown that migrant workers are often the last to leave and the least protected when instability spreads.

Evacuation of Millions Is Logistically Difficult

If tensions escalate further, the Philippine government may have to consider evacuating large numbers of citizens. But the scale is daunting. Estimates suggest around 1.1 million Filipinos are living or working in the Middle East region.

A full evacuation would require massive air and sea transport, cooperation of host governments, and safe transit corridors.

Such operations are extraordinarily complex and cannot be done overnight.

Economic Shock to Families Back Home

The risk is not only physical but economic.

Remittances from OFWs form a vital pillar of the Philippine economy, contributing billions of dollars annually and supporting millions of households.

If the conflict disrupts employment in the Gulf, families in the Philippines may suddenly lose income. Local economies dependent on remittances could suffer. National foreign exchange inflows could decline.

Thus, a regional war would not only affect workers abroad, it would ripple back to communities across the Philippines.

The Psychological Impact

Perhaps the greatest change is psychological.

For decades, many expatriates believed the wealthy Gulf states were insulated from the chaos that affected other parts of the Middle East. Cities like Dubai cultivated an image of predictability, security, and global cosmopolitan life.

But recent missile incidents and emergency measures have shaken that perception. Residents reported panic buying, quiet streets, and fears that the conflict might spread further.

When a place once considered a sanctuary begins to feel uncertain, the emotional burden on migrant workers, and their families back home, can be profound.

A Moment for Strategic Reflection

The unfolding tensions raise a difficult question for the Philippines: how sustainable is the country’s heavy dependence on overseas labor in geopolitically volatile regions?

While the Gulf will likely remain an important destination for Filipino workers, the Iran conflict serves as a stark reminder that global labor migration is deeply tied to geopolitical stability.

When wars spread, the consequences are never confined to the battlefield. They reach the homes of migrant workers, the families who depend on them, and the economies that rely on their sacrifice.

And for millions of OFW families, the hope remains that the cities they helped build in the Gulf will continue to be the safe havens they have long believed them to be.

The header shows smoke rising from an airstrike in Tehran, March 6, 2026 (credit: CNN Getty Images)

About the author

RAUL F. BORJAL, known as “Rolly” to his family and friends, was born in Naga City, Camarines Sur, and now resides in Parañaque City, Metro Manila. An alumnus of both Ateneo de Naga University and Ateneo de Manila University, he held senior executive roles in several domestic and multinational corporations, culminating in his retirement as Vice President and Corporate Secretary of a Filipino-owned group of companies.

He is married to the former Wenifreda D. Parma, a cum laude graduate of Ateneo de Naga University, and together they have four children. Rolly is also a co-founder and a member of the editorial board of Dateline Ibalon.